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Storm Outlook - 2020/21

Significant Fire Potential

 

Although the Southern Marin Fire Protection District remains hyper focused on seeing fire season through to a safe conclusion, we are also focused on our next season threats.  Evaluating information forecasted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration we are able to develop plans and information to prepare our staff and community for the coming wet season.  

 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) favors warmer, drier conditions across the southern tier of the U.S., and cooler, wetter conditions in the North, thanks in part to an ongoing La Nina. Forecasters are also closely monitoring persistent drought during the winter months ahead, with more than 45% of the continental U.S. now experiencing drought.

 

Widespread, ongoing drought is currently in place across the western half of the continental U.S. as a result of the weak Southwest summer monsoon season and near-record-high temperatures. Drought is also present in parts of the Northeast, Ohio Valley, Hawaii and Alaska. The ongoing La Nina is expected to expand and intensify drought across the southern and central Plains, eastern Gulf Coast, and in California during the months ahead. Drought conditions are expected to improve in the northern Rockies, Northwest, New England, Alaska and Hawaii over the coming months.

 

La Niña continued during September, as evidenced by below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending from the Date Line to the eastern Pacific OceanThe atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with La Niña. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly across most of the tropical Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the east-central Pacific. Tropical convection continued to be suppressed from the western Pacific to the Date La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months.  

Fire Season Continues:

The official Predictive Services outlook calls for drier and warmer than average conditions over Northern California through December, followed by near normal conditions in January. The above normal cured fine fuel crop will be vulnerable to rapid spread rates and extreme fire behavior during dry breezy weather events, which tend to peak in intensity in October and November. In October most areas from the western Cascade-Sierra slopes to the coast have Above Normal Significant Fire Potential. In November it is expected that enough rain will have fallen in far North West CA to bring that area back to normal, but Above Normal Potential will continue west of the crest to the coast from Mendocino County south until significant rain arrives, likely in the early to middle part of November. Areas not mentioned above have "Normal" significant fire potential through November, and all areas have Normal Significant Fire Potential in December and January. Predictive services offers a grim outlook for precipitation and the continuation of fire season to the Southern portions of California through December.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Conclusions

The Southern Marin Fire Protection District remains a leader in disaster preparedness and response in the North Bay.  This is due to our forward leaning posture, excellence in communication and overall experience of staff.   A well thought out communication, response and recovery process is essential to a resilient community.  Multi-modal communication with our residents and businesses is essential for positive outcomes during storm response.  Their ability to take protective actions during storm and flood events serves to minimize damage and increase community resiliency.  An effective response brings all of the jurisdictional assets to bear in order to provide the best service possible. Preparedness, education and response can mitigate the need for recovery by enhancing the resiliency of the businesses and residents.  

 

The Southern Marin Fire Protection District regularly take steps to improve our response, enhance community resiliency and mitigate the hazardous effects of flooding and storms.  We have developed and implement a strong outreach, education and engagement program with residents and business owners in flood prone areas to share what we are doing, how they should take protective actions, how to communicate and stay up-to-date current and anticipated events.  The City of Mill Valley remains a leader in disaster preparedness and response in the North Bay.  This is due to our forward leaning leadership and experience of elected officials as well as City staff.  A well thought out communication, response and recovery process is essential to a resilient community.  Multi-modal communication with our residents and businesses is essential for positive outcomes during storm response.  Their ability to take protective actions during storm and flood events serves to minimize damage and increase community resiliency.  An effective response brings all of the City’s assets to bear in order to provide the best service possible. Preparedness, education and response can mitigate the need for recovery by enhancing the resiliency of the businesses and residents.  

 

The City of Mill Valley regularly take steps to improve our response, enhance community resiliency and mitigate the hazardous effects of flooding and storms.  We have developed and implement a strong outreach, education and engagement program with residents and business owners in flood prone areas to share what we are doing, how they should take protective actions, how to communicate and stay up-to-date current and anticipated events.  

 

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Our Mission

The Mission of the Southern Marin Fire District is to contribute to Greater Southern Marin Community’s reputation as a safe, friendly, economically thriving community in which to live, work, learn, play and visit.

We achieve our mission by providing the highest quality local and regional community risk reduction, suppression, emergency medical services, rescue, marine response, disaster preparedness and community education services possible within the resources provided to us.

We are professional, proud, compassionate, highly-trained, and committed to utilizing state of the art technology to provide services that meet or exceed the expectations of our community.

Administration

28 Libertyship Way
Suite 2800
Sausalito, CA 94965

Tel: (415) 388-8182
Fax: (415) 388-8181

Emergencies: DIAL 9-1-1

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